Remember in the movie Men In Black how they had that little device that could wipe someone’s memory clean? After last week, I wouldn’t mind someone doing that to me.
Though I did a good job answering specific questions with all relevant lineup/league info (as I feel I usually do), Week 9 was certainly less than stellar with respect to the top-line picks.
While I nailed Eli Manning as a start and Seattle’s D as a sit…that was pretty much it. See below. The carnage was ugly.
But you know me. Bad weeks only motivate me more to dig deeper into the numbers and trends. I am committed to making Week 10 a much more accurate week over all…as much for your teams as for my own.
I am writing this while watching Monday Night Football. I need a 20 point night from Mike Wallace to pull out a win in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*, and with the Steelers up 17-7 and Wallace not having a TD yet, that seems unlikely. If I lose, I’ll be 5-4 and in pretty serious need of a winning streak to ensure I at least make the playoffs.
Remember, the stakes are the Super Bowl, so you know I’m overturning every stone in an effort to win – like my last minute of pick up of Seyi Atirotutu on Sunday (see, it wasn’t all bad!). The upshot is that I regurgitate all of this research into these columns, hopefully helping you out in the process.
Before we delve into the Week 10 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks, here are two quick notes and then a quick recap of how I did in Week 9 (ugh) with the top-line picks:
- Make sure you use your correct email address when commenting below. A random commenter will be chosen for a free P&G gift pack. Last week’s winner was commenter nik. Who will win this week?
- Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week
Week 9 recap:
- Start ‘em hits: Eli Manning,
- Start ‘em misses: Matt Forte, Calvin Johnson, Todd Heap, New England D
- Sit ‘em hits: Seattle Seahawks D
- Sit ‘em misses: Matthew Stafford, Steve Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew, Cedric Benson
Fantasy Football Week 10 Start em, Sit em Projections and Q&A
Note: the following teams are on bye in Week 10:
- San Diego Chargers
- Oakland Raiders
- New Orleans Saints
- Green Bay Packers
Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.
If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.
Fantasy Football Week 10 Start ‘em QB: David Garrard, Jacksonville (v Houston)
If you read this week’s waiver wire sleepers column, you know that David Garrard is my “gold star pickup of the week.” Why? Well look no further than the Houston Texans pass defense. This porous unit has given up 20 TDs in 8 games this year, and is one of the most targetable defensive units I can remember in my history playing fantasy football.
Also, Garrard has not been a slouch this year, despite his shoddy reputation. Sure, he’s been inconsistent, but that’s who he is. David Garrard is inconsistent. It’s a tenet of fantasy football.
But he has thrown for at least two TDs in four of his seven starts this year, and the games he struggled in were against the solid pass defenses of Tennessee, Philly, and San Diego. Against more suspect pass defenses like Dallas and Buffalo, Garrard has taken advantage. And suspect would be a kind way of describing Houston’s pass D.
Worth noting as well: Garrard has historically been much better at home than away. He is absolutely a must start this week. He’ll be in my top 10, the question is will he be top 5?
David Garrard fantasy football Week 10 projection: 250 yards passing, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Other start ‘em QBs for Week 10:
- Michael Vick against Washington’s generous pass defense is an obvious play.
- Ryan Fitzpatrick actually had a decent showing against a very tough Bears defense. He faces the much more forgiving Detroit secondary in Week 10.
- Whoever starts for the Lions – Matthew Stafford or Shaun Hill (but not Drew Stanton, I don’t trust him) – is a solid start against the Buffalo Bills.
- Eli Manning is a very good start at home against Dallas. He torched them a few weeks ago and the Giants are red hot right now. The Cowboys are the opposite of red hot.
Fantasy Football Week 10 Sit ‘em QB: Brett Favre, Minnesota (at Chicago)
I know that you Brett Favre owners probably had the old man on your bench in Week 9 (a wise move, despite the result) and had to watch him put up two TDs and 446 passing yards. You are probably itching to get him in your lineup this week, especially if you have Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, or Aaron Rodgers.
Unfortunately for you (or perhaps fortunately), I am here to throw some cold water on you with the following realities:
- The Bears have allowed only five passing touchdowns all season
- Favre continues to start and finish most games, but he gets older and more dinged up each week. Don’t you think the physical Bears will try everything they can to smack their old nemesis around? Favre staying healthy is a major risk each week for the rest of the season.
- The numbers Brett put up last week were against a very weak Cardinals pass D. Sidney Rice is not expected to be back at full strength by next Sunday (though he should play) meaning Favre will have to go against the Bears’ secondary with Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian, and Greg Camarillo again.
I absolutely think Favre needs to be the starter for the Vikings, and I think he has a shot to put up more consistent numbers once Sidney Rice gets back to full strength, but with so many good “second tier” QB options like Garrard and Fitzpatrick out there, why risk playing Favre when he is throwing so many INTs and so banged up? I just don’t like the risk/return here.
Brett Favre fantasy football Week 10 projection: 275 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs
Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 10:
- I would like to apologize to everyone for having Chad Henne ranked so highly last week. I’m done with him. He sucks.
- Carson Palmer against the Indy pass D? No thanks. At least, not top 10. He did have another solid game against Pittsburgh, I just don’t totally trust him yet.
- Don’t get cute and think you should start Colt McCoy because he’s playing well in real life. The Browns’ offense does not produce passing TDs, and the Jets have lots of talent in their secondary.
Fantasy Football Week 10 Start ‘em RB: Marshawn Lynch, Seattle (at Arizona)
You probably think I’m crazy. Why would I tell you to start a running back who has 57 yards on 20 carries with no touchdowns the last two weeks? Well, to be honest, it’s all about the matchup.
The Seahawks face the Arizona Cardinals in Week 10. The Cardinals give up in the neighborhood of 130 rushing yards per game. They have also given up nine rushing TDs this season (and it should be 10 if the Vikings would have given Adrian Peterson one more goalline try in the 4th quarter…but I digress.)
So while Lynch has been a major disappointment the last couple of weeks, and will continue to be up and down, this is one of the “up” weeks. Hopefully Matt Hasselbeck will be back too, which should help the Seattle offense provide more scoring opportunities for its running backs.
Marshawn Lynch fantasy football Week 10 projection: 95 yards rushing, 1 TD
Other start ‘em RBs for Week 10:
- I’m not a huge fan of the matchup versus the Jets, but Peyton Hillis is officially a must start now. How can he not be?
- I didn’t like Cedric Benson last week against Pittsburgh, but I do like him this week against Indy.
- Fred Jackson is a sneaky-good start against the relatively forgiving Lions’ D this week, and CJ Spiller is even worth a flyer in deeper leagues.
Fantasy Football Week 10 Sit ‘em RB: LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene, New York Jets (at Cleveland)
Yes, that’s right. I’m telling you to sit the running backs from a 6-2 team against the Cleveland Browns. Here’s why:
- Surprisingly, the Browns have only given up one rushing TD this season. That is the best in the NFL. Granted, the Browns D isn’t better than the Steelers or Jets (which have given multiple ground TDs this season), but they only give up around 100 yards per game rushing.
- Against the Patriots in Week 9, the Browns stuffed a good goalline running game numerous times. That’s a good sign, and shows that the 1 TD rushing isn’t just a fluke.
- LT has just 101 yards over the last two weeks on 33 carries. He hasn’t scored. That’s about what he was doing last year for the Chargers when everyone said he was washed up. (Hmm…just saying.) He has caught 11 passes over the last two weeks though, so you probably DO want to play LT in PPR leagues.
- Greene has just 25 carries over the last three weeks. Even though his yard per carry average is better than LT’s, he simply isn’t getting the touches.
- The Jets produced through the air in Week 9, which is how you beat this Browns’ D. They consistently give up multiple TDs to opposing QBs; the running backs just don’t get involved in the action.
Now watch LT scored two TDs and Greene score one. Wouldn’t that just be appropriate!
Still, I think the stats and trends point to this being a tough matchup for LT and Greene. Plan accordingly.
LaDainian Tomlinson fantasy football Week 10 projection: 50 yards rushing, 5 receptions, 30 yards receiving, 0 TDs
Shonn Green fantasy football Week 10 projection: 50 yards rushing
Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 10:
- The Minnesota Vikings have been pretty good against the run this year, giving up less than 100 yards per game and only 6 TDs. With Matt Forte’s dismal performance against Buffalo’s awful run D, and Chester Taylor starting to steal opportunities, it’s time to consider alternate options if you have them.
- The Chiefs are also giving up around 100 yards rushing per game. While the Raiders scored two TDs on the ground against them in Week 9, one was by the QB and they did a pretty good job of containing Darren McFadden and Michael Bush. That doesn’t bode well for Knowshon Moreno in Week 10.
- In Week 8 I sat BenJarvus Green-Ellis and he went off. In Week 9 I started him and he sucked. Guess what? It’s an easy choice in Week 10: he faces Pittsburgh. Sit him!
Fantasy Football Week 10 Start ‘em WR: Steve Johnson, Buffalo (v Detroit)
Look, I know that I can be stubborn sometimes, especially when it comes to proven veterans and rookies, but I’m not so stubborn that I’ll ignore six straight weeks of fantasy worthiness. And that’s exactly what Steve Johnson has done:
- Week 3: 3 catches, 66 yards, 1 TD
- Week 4: 3 catches, 31 yards, 1 TD
- Week 5: 5 catches, 46 yards, 2 TDs
- Week 6: bye
- Week 7: 8 catches, 158 yards, 1 TD
- Week 8: 5 catches, 37 yards, 1 TD
- Week 9: 11 catches, 145 yards, 0 TD
What is interesting to note is that I had Johnson as my sit ‘em WR for Week 9, based on the probability that he wouldn’t score a TD for a sixth straight week against a very good Bears pass D. Well, he didn’t score a TD, but he did set a career high in catches and had his second 140+ yard receiving game in his last three outings. That’s impressive.
Do I totally trust Johnson? No, I don’t. So I put him here somewhat begrudgingly. But his numbers speak for themselves, and Chan Gailey offenses love to throw the ball. Also, the Lions give up 235+ passing yards per game and have allowed 13 passing TDs this season. You can’t sit Johnson now.
Steve Johnson fantasy football Week 10 projection: 6 catches, 85 yards, 1 TD
Other start ‘em WRs for Week 10:
- Mike Sims-Walker and Mike Thomas v Houston. Duh.
- Kansas City is better against the run than the pass. Brandon Lloyd has 100+ yards in 5 of his 8 starts this year. He plays.
- Dwayne Bowe just keeps scoring TDs. Facing a Denver that has given up 12 TDs in 8 games is a tasty matchup.
- Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards have to be considered decent start options this week. Both bounced back in Week 9, and the way to beat Cleveland is through the air.
- I know that Steve Smith (CAR) was shutout in Week 9, and that his team has huge QB issues. Well, I’d sit him at your own risk. Tampa Bay has given up a lot of passing TDs this year, and Smith is a prideful athlete with a lot of skins on the wall. I’m going against the stats and trends and saying that you want him in your lineup this week, even if John Fox takes snaps at QB.
- Speaking of Tampa Bay, Mike Williams has now become a weekly start. I can’t hold out any longer.
Fantasy Football Week 10 Sit ‘em WR: Brandon Marshall, Miami (v Tennessee)
Understand a few things here:
- I’m a Dolphins fan, so I hope I’m horribly wrong with this pick (and I am, at least in part, strategically placing Marshall in hopes of reverse-jinxing him into a huge day).
- I have Brandon Marshall as my #1 WR in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*, and I will be starting him because I don’t have a good enough alternative.
That said, I’m really starting to get worried. I have overrated Marshall for many weeks now because I’ve though he would break out. While his 10-catch, 127-yard performance against Green Bay in Week 6 was encouraging, Marshall has just 15 catches for 170 yards since. And the most important number? Zero touchdowns over that span. For the season, Marshall has just one TD.
It’s no coincidence that as I’ve overrated Marshall, I’ve also overrated Chad Henne. Well, after watching Henne not look very good for two straight weeks, and with some other stinker performances sprinkled in this season, I’m done counting on these two to get it going. If they are going to, I’ll wait for the proof on the field and then bump them back up my rankings.
Remember, just because Marshall is listed here doesn’t mean I’d sit him no matter what. He’s still good for a minimum of 5-6 catches per game, and still is one of the more talented wide receivers in the game. I place him here more to make the point (to myself as much as you, dear reader) that you need to start tempering your expectations for Marshall.
If you are blessed with a stable of good WRs, I give you my blessing to bench Marshall. Who would have thought playing Steve Johnson over Brandon Marshall, with both healthy, would be a good play? Well, that’s the move I would make this week.
Brandon Marshall fantasy football Week 10 projection: 6 receptions 70 yards, 0 TDs
Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 10:
- I’m not big on T.O. or Ochocinco this week against Indy. But T.O. scored twice again in Week 9, so you pretty much have to play him unless you’re ridiculously stacked. Ocho? I wouldn’t play him over Jordan Shipley at this point.
- Mike Williams (SEA) laid another egg in Week 9. Don’t even consider him if Hasselbeck is out. Even if Hasselbeck is in, understand the huge risk and minimal reward (few TDs) Williams brings.
- Miami didn’t give up much to the Baltimore WRs in Week 9. I’d be a little nervous about using any Tennessee WRs – including Randy Moss, if you have options – in Week 10.
Fantasy Football Week 10 Start ‘em TE: Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville (v Houston)
Yeah, I know…this is low hanging fruit. Lewis has 7 TD catches on the season and Houston’s pass D gave up two TDs to Randy McMichael – Randy McMichael – in Week 9. This is a no brainer. But after the week I had last week with the top-line picks, I need to feel a little better about myself. After Lewis proves to be one of the best tight ends in Week 10, I’ll feel a bit better.
Marcedes Lewis fantasy football Week 10 projection: 5 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD
Other start ‘em TEs for Week 10:
- I don’t need to tell you to start Jacob Tamme, do I?
- Aaron Hernandez caught his first two TD passes of the season in Week 9. Now that he’s popped his TD cherry, I think there could be more to come.
- The Panthers gave up two TDs to tight ends in Week 9. Perhaps Kellen Winslow can get his first TD against them this week. He continues to get a decent amount of targets and catches, so he’s not a terrible option.
Fantasy Football Week 10 Sit ‘em TE: Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati (at Indianapolis)
Brent Celek did not register a catch against the Colts in Week 9. This isn’t a fluke, as the Colts shut down Owen Daniels the week before, and have typically been good against tight ends. While Greshman has plenty of talent, his numbers are actually dwindling as this season progresses. There is no reason to start him this week.
Jermaine Gresham fantasy football Week 10 projection: 4 receptions, 30 yards, 0 TDs
Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 10:
- Kevin Boss caught a TD in Week 9, but he only had 2 catches for 15 yards, and it was in a terribly easy game against Seattle. Don’t get excited.
- John Carlson put up another disappointing line in Week 9. You can’t trust him.
Fantasy Football Week 10 Start ‘em Defense: Minnesota Vikings (at Chicago)
I know that the Vikings gave up 24 points to a Derek Anderson-led Cardinals team in Week 9. While that isn’t impressive, the fact that they sacked Anderson six times is impressive. With the easily sackable Jay Cutler on the schedule for Week 10, I expect another big sack game, as well as the potential for a few INTs.
Minnesota Vikings fantasy football Week 10 projection: 21 or fewer points, 6 sacks, 2 INTs
Other start ‘em Defenses for Week 10:
- Tampa Bay’s D doesn’t get many sacks or force a lot of turnovers, but they are playing Carolina. That makes them a decent play.
- Just as the Vikings are a good start against the Bears, the Bears D is a decent start against a QB in Brett Favre who will throw INTs.
- St. Louis’ defense has been very good at home this year. With a Troy Smith-led 49ers team coming to town in Week 10, they are a solid option.
Update: Thanks to the astute commenter who noted that St. Louis is not playing at home this weekend. They are AT San Francisco. The Rams have not been nearly as good on the road as they’ve been at home this year, so I’m not quite as high on them. They aren’t a terrible play, because they are facing SF after all, but not an automatic start.
Fantasy Football Week 10 Sit ‘em Defense: Baltimore Ravens (at Atlanta)
The Ravens did a nice job of bottling up the Dolphins in Week 9, but they have to go into the unfriendly confines of the Georgia Dome in Week 10. Matt Ryan and the Falcons play excellent football, especially offensively, when they are at home. I don’t expect the Ravens D – which isn’t what its reputation suggests – to have a great outing in Week 10.
Baltimore Ravens fantasy football Week 10 projection: 24 or more points, 2 sacks, 1 TO
Other sit ‘em Defenses for Week 10:
- After New England got torched by the one-dimensional Browns in Week 9, I’m not too excited about them against a good Pittsburgh offense.
- Seattle’s defense is done as a playable unit. Done. They suck.
The comment section is yours. Have at it. We’ll be here answering all week.
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* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.